Rahmbo clears field in social media dustup; Does it mean anything?

A study of tweets indicates Rahm Emanuel (D- Old Ravenswood) has dominated the political discussion since joining the race to become Chicago’s next mayor.

A social media study commissioned by the Bulldog on Viral Heat says there were 90,891 tweets in the past six days about Emanuel. That is probably more than all the other Illinois politicians tracked by The Bulldog combined.

Emanuel was mentioned, according to the study on 7,171 sites, including news and blog sites, in the past six days.

The studies, some of which were commissioned by The Bulldog, show Emanuel clearly leading the civil discussion regarding the replacement for Richard Daley. The Bulldog commissioned its study on Viral Heat. Further information was found on Twendz, which is using the race as a demonstartion of its social media tracking abilities.

That study of the past 29 days shows Emanuel’s dramatic exit from the White House Chief of Staff position as a spike in social media activity on Sept 30 and Oct 1. In a one week period centered on Oct 1 there were 10,284 mentions of Chicago and mayoral, according to Twendz.

Finally, if there can be any doubt about Emanuel’s dominance of social media discussion, it may be put to rest with a search for his Twitter site.

A recent news report claimed there were 20 such sites on Twitter. Beware, some of the sites are intended for mature stomachs. Neither Emanuel’s website nor his Facebook Page (28,705 friends) lists the official Twitter site.

In the Illinois race for governor, the Republican challenger Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) and Jason Plummer (R-Edwardsville) are leading Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn (D-Chicago) and candidate Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale). The Bulldog has studied the race for social media for several weeks.

Republican challenger Bill Brady maintains a 22.5 percent lead in Facebook followers, 18,045 to 14,733. The deficit for Brady was 517 to 9,492 on Sept 18, the date The Bulldog first began measuring the candidates social media. Since that time, The Bulldog has located additional pages supporting Brady.

In another study of Brady and Quinn by Viral Heat Brady received 634 social mentions in the past 6 days. Quinn received 435 mentions over the same period.

On Sept 18 Brady held a lead of 1,632 to 996 (63.9 percent) followers for Quinn. Twitter followers of the Lt. Governors were not measured.

Rich Whitney (G-Carbondale) was measured at 351 Twitter followers in Sept and 379 today. Scott Lee Cohen (I- Chicago: DePaul) had no known Twitter presence in Sept, today he has 1,164 followers. Libertarian candidate Lex Green (Libertarian- Bloomington) has 69 Twitter followers.

Reaching deeper into the ballot Forrest Claypool (I-Graceland West) maintains a lead in Twitter followers 306 to 41 for Joe Berrios (D-Cragin); and no presence for Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall (R-Evanston) and Robert Grota (G-Logan Square).

Claypool also has a lead of 1,678 Facebook friends and followers over Berrios (975), Stobeck-Eckersall (153) and Grota (no presence). Berrios social media stock is rising fast, however. In Sept he had just 399 Facebook friends and 39 Twitter followers.

The political races on Twitter: Claypool heating up support

Studies have shown there is a close relation between the number of tweets a candidate receives in the weeks leading up to an election and the election result. Tweets are considered a substitute for political speech, according to studies. Friends and followers are not considered as important.

Two weeks ago The Bulldog looked at candidates of special interest to Ravenswood residents, because the races represent Ravenswood or the race includes a Ravenswood resident.

We look again this week, adding some more web sites on Twitter and Facebook.

We’re following the gubernatorial race due to Ed Rutledge, the Libertarian candidate for Lt. Gov. Two weeks ago Bill Brady led the Twitter followers with 1,632. Brady increased his following on Twitter by 4.8 percent compared to Pat Quinn, who has increased his following by 5.5 percent to 1051.

Polls in the last week have shown Quinn closing the gap on Brady in the race.

Among the concerns, according to some observers, is the possibility of a Libertarian hurting the GOP. However, if Twitter is any clue, the Libertarian party is losing support, with 67 followers this week compared to 70 last week.

In a similar fashion, supporters of a Green candidate or Scott Lee Cohen are expected to hurt Pat Quinn. However here the independent and third parties are picking up strength, according to the figures. Cohen increased his following by 66.5 percent to 926 from 556.

Rich Whitney, the Green candidate who scored 10 percent of the vote in 2006, put out a plea for funds. However his support increased to 557 from 351, an increase of 58.7 percent.

Quinn has a strong Facebook following. However the actual tweets, the mentions we could find on Twitter, continue to lag behind Brady. Further, many of the governor’s tweets are about official business and are not campaign issues.

This week the Twitter count was based on two days, instead of four days in the previous count. A candidate may have more counts in any particular day depending on what event they are at.

The Berrios/ Claypool/ Strobeck-Eckersall/ Grota race is very interesting. There were tweets about it two weeks ago, but none this week. Claypool added 90 new Facebook followers and 37 Twitter followers in two weeks. Berrios added a total of five followers combined. Berrios’ is reported to have strong support among minorities. It is possible his social media support is hidden due to the social media we are measuring being dominated by caucasians.

Strobeck-Eckersall actually shrank over the last two weeks.

We discovered additional social media accounts for David Ratowitz and Mike Quigley in this period. So, let’s let this settle down. It comes as no surprise that Ratowitz trails Quigley in the heavily Democratic district. However the social media support for Ratowitz, this week, is surprising.

Official Home Office Status Twitter followers FB followers Recent Tweets
Bill Brady/ Jason Plummer Bloomington/ Edwardsville IL Governor Republican Challenger 1711 6764 80
Pat Quinn/ Sheila Simon Chicago/ Carbondale IL Governor Democrat Incumbent 1051 9589 51
Scott Lee Cohen/ Baxter Swilley DePaul/ Rogers Park IL Governor Independent Challenger 926 61 3
Rich Whitney/ Don Crawford Carbondale/ St Elmo IL Governor Green Challenger 557 1603 + 2355 5
Lex Green/ Ed Rutledge Bloomington/ Ravenswood IL Governor Libertarian Challenger 67 685 1
Official Home Office Status Twitter followers FB followers Recent Tweets
Forrest Claypool Graceland West County Assessor Independent Candidate 291 1628 0
Joseph Berrios Cragin County Assessor Democrat Candidate 44 400 0
Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall Evanston County Assessor Republican Candidate 0 64 0
Robert Grota Logan Square County Assessor Green Candidate 1 20 0

US CONGRESS

Official Home Status Twitter followers FB followers Recent Tweets
Mike Quigley Southport Democrat Incumbent 93+1312+1741 1246 12
Matthew Reichel Ravenswood Green Challenger 64 234 0
David Ratowitz Avondale Republican Challenger 1113 248+719 0

IL ATTORNEY GENERAL

Lisa Madigan St Bens IL Attorney General Democrat Incumbent 417+57 846+2887 12
Steve Kim Northbrook IL Attorney General Republican Challenger 0 631 2
Bill Malan Chicago: Near West Side IL Attorney General Libertarian Challenger 0 16 0
David F Black Belvidere IL Attorney General Green Challenger 0 0 0

IL 7th SENATE

Official Home Office Status Twitter followers FB followers Recent Tweets
Adam Robinson Edgewater IL 7th Senate Republican Challenger 273 516 0
Heather Steans Lakewood- Balmoral IL 7th Senate Democrat Incumbent 0 806+1351+65
IL 11th HOUSE
Ann Williams North Center IL 11th House Democrat Candidate 328 893 0
Scott Tucker Roscoe Village IL 11th House Republican Candidate 0 1864 0
IL 13th HOUSE
Gregory Harris Uptown IL 13th House Democrat Incumbent 0 2519
IL 40th HOUSE
Deb Mell Avondale IL 40th House Democrat Incumbent 371 1701

COOK COUNTY 12th BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS

John Fritchey DePaul West Democrat Candidate 1027 3231 0
William C “Bill” Miceli Mayfair North Republican Candidate 0 0 0

John Fritchey with zero tweets? Fritchey is among the most active users of social media among Illinois politicians. However the search criteria was “John Fritchey” as text within the tweet.

Ravenswood candidate fund-raising filing

Democratic candidates are easily out classing their Republican and Green Party opponents in fund raising, according to filings this month with the Illinois State Board of Elections.

The semi-annual filings, combined with statements by candidates for Congress filed with the Federal Elections Commission, only looking at candidates that reside in or represent the Ravenswood area were examined.

They show Democratic Party candidates held more than $10 million at the beginning of the year while Republican candidates held just over $9,000. The Republican candidates were unable to make up ground during the year, raising just $38,384.40, considered by some political analysts to be insufficient to even run a single aldermanic challenge.

Democrats meanwhile, raised $6,519,206.55 in the past six months, the reports indicate.

Even Democratic candidates running for 2011 municipal elections raised more than the combined total of the Republican slate. Aldermen Patrick O’Connor, Eugene Schulter and Richard Mell raised $94,716.26.

Only one aldermanic challenger, Ameya Pawar in the 47th Ward, filed a campaign report. He raised $8,857.98 in the last six months.  In addition to Pawar, the 40th Ward will see Jason Honig challenge O’Connor.

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On Hand 1/1/2010 Raised 1st half 2010 On Hand 6/30/2010
US CONGRESS 5th CD


David Ratowitz * $- $53,939.00 $4,597.00
(R-Avondale)


US Congress IL 05. Challenger.






Matthew Reichel * No filing

(G-Andersonville South)


US Congress IL 05. Challenger.






Mike Quigley * $134,729.00 $1,140,940.00 $321,467.00
(D-Lakeview)


US Congress IL 05. Incumbent.






* Federal candidates filing from Federal reports.






STATE AND LOCAL CANDIDATES (ACTIVE)


Lisa Madigan $4,143,847.09 $491,124.13 $4,434,234.43
(D- St. Bens)


Illinois Attorney General, Incumbent


Steve Kim (R-Northbrook) $3,820.73 $23,260.23 $15,917.77
David Black (G-Belvidere) No filing

Christopher Pedersen (Independent Conservative- Joliet No filing

Bill Malan (Libertarian- Chicago: Tri-Taylor) No filing

Louis Cotton (Constitution- Sorento) No filing





Adam Robinson $3,662.75 $9,746.50 $8,857.59
(R-Edgewater)


7th Illinois Senate District, Challenger






Heather Steans $148,808.72 $108,422.53 $41,952.22
(D-Lakewood-Balmoral)


7th Illinois Senate District, Incumbent






Ann Williams $43,586.53 $130,904.79 $15,281.21
(D-North Center)


11th Illinois Legislative, Candidate






Scott Tucker $- $2,503.33 $823.65
(R-Roscoe Village)


11th Illinois Legislative, Candidate






Forrest Claypool $- $726,175.00 $533,201.58
(I- Graceland West)


12th Cook County Commissioner (running for Cook County Assessor)


Joseph Berrios (D-Chicago: Cragin)
Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios (Assessor) $79,750.82 $858,079.94 $67,699.07
Friends of Berrios (MWRD) $61,333.58 $506,003.86 $202,313.00
Citizens for Berrios (State Rep) $128,906.60 $23,700.00 $13,532.60
Joseph Berrios, 31st Ward Committeeman $122,267.26 $1,800.00 $3,716.42
Berrios TOTAL $392,258.26 $1,389,583.80 $287,261.09
Robert C Grota (G-Logan Square) No filing

Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall (R-Evanston) No filing





John Fritchey $122,235.56 $49,145.00 $74,133.83
(D-DePaul West)


11th Illinois Legislative (running for 12th Cook County Commissioner)


William C “Bill” Miceli (R-North Mayfair) $1,606.66 $2,874.34 $2,259.80




Greg Harris $36,827.22 $2,970.28 $25,992.76
(D-Uptown)


13th Illinois Legislative, Incumbent. Unopposed






Deb Mell $14,029.25 $25,335.00 $19,305.48
(D-Avondale)


40th Illinois Legislative, Incumbent. Running unopposed.






Lisa M Reed No filing

(R-Irving Park)


40th Illinois Legislative. Challenger. Removed from ballot after protest.






STATE AND LOCAL CANDIDATES (2011 Municipal election)


Scott Waguespack $19,635.85 $23,664.00 $16,518.55
(D-)


Chicago 32nd Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011. Declared for mayor)






Rahm Emanuel * $1,766,410.00 $9,605.00 $1,175,763.00
(D-Ravenswood)


White House Chief of Staff. Mentioned as candidate for mayor






Jason Honig No filing

(I-)


Chicago 40th Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011). Challenger.






Patrick J O’Connor $124,244.60 $65,465.00 $71,491.51
(D-Budlong Woods)


Chicago 40th Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011). Incumbent.






Eugene Schulter $150,954.50 $14,366.26 $141,535.89
(D-North Center) Investments
$642,556.92
Chicago 47th Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011). Incumbent.



Democratic Party of the 47th Ward


$70,371.86 $81,265.00 $105,620.47

Schulter TOTAL
$889,713.28




Ameya Pawar $250.00 $8,857.98 $5,983.20
(I-Ravenswood)


Chicago 47th Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011). Challenger.






Richard Mell $264,313.55 $14,885.00 $174,212.59
(D-Irving Park)


Chicago 33rd Ward Alderman (office not in cycle till 2011). Incumbent. No known challengers.






STATE AND LOCAL CANDIDATES (INACTIVE)


Daniel Hynes $2,075,719.66 $1,287,755.36 $17,090.73
(D- North Center)


Illinois State Comptroller. Lost bid for Governor






James M Houlihan $358,102.46 $282.13 $221,670.61
(D- Lakeview East)


Cook County Assessor. (Retiring)






John Cullerton


(D- Ravenswood Manor) $171,779.90 $293,909.47 $114,988.09
Illinois Senate President. Office is not in election cycle
Investments $108,905.84

Cullerton TOTAL
$223,893.93